各位周6好，截至北京时间10月8日，乌克兰战争进入227天。
俄罗斯的克里米亚地区发生了重磅事件：连接克里米亚和乌克兰的大桥发生爆炸。
这不是俄罗斯所在的克里米亚地区在乌克兰战争期间遭遇的第一次袭击，上一次是俄罗斯的军事基地。从这个事件可以看出乌克兰的军事打击能力。
目前俄罗斯尚未确定事件背后的凶手。
虽然很多媒体称这会威胁到俄罗斯赫尔松州到克里米亚的军事运输以及补给的线路，但是目前的结果来看，尚未构成如此巨大的威胁。截至北京时间22:00大桥的交通已经恢复。
从这一事件可以看到，俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争里，尚未展现出绝对的统治力。
此事件的后续影响，我们会持续跟进。
Western and Russian reports of fractures within the Kremlin are gaining traction within the Russian information space, undermining the appearance of stability of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime.
西方和俄罗斯关于俄罗斯内部分裂的报道在俄罗斯的信息空间中越来越引人注目，破坏了俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京政权的稳定。Russian President Vladimir Putin may have waited to announce that he had replaced Eastern Military District (EMD) Commander Aleksandr Chaiko until he needed to use Chaiko as a scapegoat for Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman, Donetsk Oblast.俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）可能一直在等待宣布，他已经替换了东部军区司令Aleksandr Chaiko，直到他需要用Chaiko作为俄罗斯在哈尔科夫州和顿涅茨克州莱曼军事失败的替罪羊。Ukrainian forces likely continued counteroffensive operations along the Kreminna-Svatove road in western Luhansk Oblast.乌克兰军队可能会继续沿着卢甘斯克州西部的克里米纳（Kreminna）到斯瓦托韦（距离卢甘斯克154公里）的公路开展反攻行动。Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions in northern Kherson Oblast, and Ukrainian and Russian sources reported ongoing battles north and northwest of Kherson City.俄罗斯军队继续在赫尔松州北部建立防御阵地，乌克兰和俄罗斯消息人士报道，赫尔松市北部和西北部正在发生战斗。Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.Anecdotal reports of poor conditions for mobilized personnel in the Russian information space are continuing to fuel the accurate narrative of Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) incompetence.关于俄罗斯信息空间动员人员条件差的传闻报道继续为俄罗斯和俄罗斯国防部（MoD）无能的准确描述火上浇油。Russian officials offered basic concessions for mobilized men and their families on October 7 but continue to rely on local governments and other non-federal institutions to provide support, including food and training, to newly mobilized men.10月7日，俄罗斯官员为动员的男子及其家人提供了基本的让步，但继续依赖地方政府和其他非联邦机构向新动员的男子提供支持，包括食品和培训。Russian occupation officials have likely failed to repair necessary civilian infrastructure in occupied and illegally-annexed parts of Ukraine in time for winter as temperatures drop.随着气温下降，俄罗斯占领官员可能无法及时修复乌克兰被占领和吞并的部分地区的必要民用基础设施，以备冬季之需。